I checked more carefully and there are 12 wires broken and a pretty solid 1/8 inch core. 1/3 of strength estimate looking good but even perhaps a little optimistic. It would be 35% if the core were at full strength, which I doubt.
So roughly, 4400 pound keel at 5 feet at 30 degrees is 2200x5 = 11000 ft pounds. If all of that was from the top of the mast 40 feet up but acting through only 13 degrees is 1,250 pounds. A bit close to the 2000 pound strength of new 1x19 1/8 wire which this was not. But then again, all the load was not on the upper as you point out.
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