Shrinkage
Hi again,
When you make this type of splice, the part you bury the tail in gets fatter and shorter -- like we all do -- so you need to add a bit to compensate before splicing. The amount will vary depending on rope construction and diameter, as well as the overall length and the taper of the tail. A couple of inches is fairly typical, but you can zero in by making a mark a known distance from the bearing point of the eye, before splicing, and then seeing how much it has moved after splicing.
Also, have you also deducted for constructional stretch? In most HM it is about a foot in fifty feet.
Fair leads,
Brion Toss
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